The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The July Outlook includes exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures in many areas, notably a vast block of eastern North America including the Great Lakes States, the U.S. Northeast, and well into Canada. Central Europe will be considerably drier than normal while wetter conditions are expected in the Balkans.
The forecast for the next three months shows a significant reduction in the extent and severity of water deficits in the Ohio River Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, the Deep South, and South Atlantic states. Parts of New England will transition from deficit to moderate surplus. Surpluses are forecast in the northern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, Wisconsin, and Iowa, southern Missouri, southern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and southern Colorado. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Idaho and surrounding states, and surpluses of generally lesser severity are expected in California’s northern two-thirds.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2017 through January 2018 include: Florida (US), Brazil, northern Chile, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Africa, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Papua New Guinea, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho (US), La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), and Kazakhstan. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 May 2017.
The outlook for the United States through January indicates that water deficits will dominate the Ohio River Valley west through Arkansas and south to the Gulf, as well as the Delaware and lower Susquehanna drainages. Surpluses of varying severity are forecast for a vast block of the Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and eastern North Carolina. From February through April the severity of both deficits and surpluses will diminish and some states in the Midwest and Northeast will transition to near-normal conditions. However, surpluses will persist in much of the Northwest and Upper Midwest.
The outlook for the United States through December indicates that water deficits will continue to dominate much of the northeastern US, though the expanse of exceptional deficits is expected to shrink. Significant deficits will also persist from Ohio through the South, in Southern California, and along the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. A large block of surpluses will persist in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. After December deficits across the country will diminish considerably but surpluses in the upper Midwest are expected to persist and moderate surpluses will emerge in the Rocky Mountain States.
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