The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Overall much of Mexico will experience drier than normal conditions. However, exceptional deficits in Baja and across the Gulf of California observed for the past three months are forecast to diminish in the months ahead. From August through October deficits will increase in severity in the state of Veracruz in a wide inland arc from the Gulf of Mexico. Deficits are also forecast during this period for eastern Jamaica and in Haiti. Moderate deficits are forecast to emerge in Guatemala and El Salvador.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Sonora. In Central America deficits are forecast in Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and eastern Panama. In the Caribbean dry conditions are forecast for Haiti; surpluses in central Cuba will persist through the spring months.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico with exceptional severity. Surpluses are forecast along the Rio Grande River and in a wide path from Sonora southward following the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountain range. Surpluses in central Cuba are forecast to persist through the spring months. Overall for the year moderate deficits are expected in Guatemala and Honduras, though more severe deficits are forecast throughout Central America in the latter months of the forecast period.
Water deficits are forecast to emerge on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico with exceptional severity. Surpluses will re-emerge in Sonora and persist in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and central Cuba. Abnormal to severe deficits will emerge in much of Central America by July and in Jamaica by August.
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