Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2017 through May 2018 include: Montana (US), Nayarit (Mexico), Amapá (Brazil), Italy, the Arabian Peninsula, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (India), Cambodia, Mongolia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: US Gulf Coast, La Pampa (Argentina), Tanzania, Bangladesh, Tripura and Mizoram (India), western Myanmar, Laos, Jiangxi and Guangxi (China), and Transvolga (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2017.
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Gulf of Mexico
Water deficits on Mexico’s Baja Peninsula are forecast to diminish by November. Deficits in southern Mexico – reaching from Michoacán in the west to Tabasco on the Gulf of Mexico – will persist through May. Deficits are also forecast in Haiti through November, and Guatemala and El Salvador through May. Surpluses are forecast from Nicaragua to Panama through November but should diminish thereafter.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula through September with greatest extent and severity in July. Deficits are forecast in southern Mexico during this period and are expected to be of exceptional severity along the southern Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz, Tabasco, and Oaxaca. Deficits are also forecast in Guatemala and El Salvador, Jamaica and Haiti, and after September may emerge in Belize, Honduras, western Nicaragua and eastern Panama.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula through August and emerge around the southern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan and southward into Central America. Thereafter moderate deficits are expected to emerge throughout much of southern Mexico. Deficits are also forecast in Haiti.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, coastal West Africa, southern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Western Russia, and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: southern South America, East Africa, and Southwest China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 November 2015.
Water deficits may dominate the northern US from the Pacific Northwest eastward through Minnesota in the coming months, with surpluses in the Upper Mississippi. The forecast for California indicates a transition from deficits to surpluses by February. Surpluses may persist in the Central and Southern Plains and along Mississippi River tributaries. Extensive deficits are forecast March through May from the central Gulf Coast region northward through the Great Lakes region.