The near-term forecast indicates significant water deficits for southern Mexico which may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Campeche. Surpluses will emerge in Sonora. Deficits are also forecast for northern Central America, with surpluses in the southern nations. Deficits will spread and intensify somewhat in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and downgrade to mild in western Cuba. Jamaica will transition to extreme deficit.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2018 through April 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Sichuan, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 August 2018.
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula through August and emerge around the southern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan and southward into Central America. Thereafter moderate deficits are expected to emerge throughout much of southern Mexico. Deficits are also forecast in Haiti.