The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Pockets of exceptional water deficits affecting the eastern extents of Ontario and central Quebec are expected to persist in the near-term but subside by September. Recent exceptional surplus conditions in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to continue throughout the forecast period into early 2018. Conditions normalize over the remaining regions of Canada by the December through February 2018 period.
Recent severe water deficits across Mexico are expected to subside somewhat through August, shifting toward the south and bringing moderate deficit conditions to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. These conditions are forecast to persist into early 2018. Surplus conditions in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica should subside and moderate by the final forecast period. Exceptional surplus conditions in central Cuba and Haiti are forecast to persist but moderate slightly by early 2018.
Severe to exceptional water deficit conditions are expected to continue in the desert regions of the northern nations, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, northern Niger, and northern Sudan. Gabon, Botswana and Madagascar are also expected to experience exceptional deficit conditions in the near term. Surpluses in Tanzania may shift southward in the out months entering early 2018. While conditions moderate across sub-Saharan Africa, there are indications that moderate to severe deficits may develop across the Sahel and northern Chad and Sudan in the December through February 2018 period.
Widespread extreme water deficits spanning the middle of the country are expected to subside in the June through August forecast period. Deficits will persist in the Darwin region of the Northern Territory, on Tasmania, and in the southwestern extents of Western Australia through November. Recent surplus conditions in northern Western Australia, east of Darwin, and along the central Queensland coast are expected persist through November. In the December through February 2018 forecast period conditions are forecast to normalize with the exception of moderate deficits south of Darwin and in the Perth region of Western Australia.
Mixed conditions across East Asia are expected to continue over the next three months with moderate water deficits in China’s southern provinces of Guizhou and Guangxi persisting throughout the forecast period. Deficits on the Korean peninsula may shift from the vicinity of Incheon and Seoul to cover the majority of North Korea. Northeastern China is expected to develop severe to exceptional deficits that may intensify by the December through February 2018 period. Surpluses are indicated in the near-term for western Tibet but moderating over the extended forecast.
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