The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Much of the region has experienced exceptional water surplus conditions in the most recent observations. These moderate in the near-term forecast and subside completely September through February 2018. Recently observed exceptional deficits in Cambodia and Papua New Guinea subside during the June through August period. In the December through February 2018 forecast period deficits may emerge over mainland Malaysia and coastal Myanmar.
In the June through August forecast period water conditions are largely moderate across the sub-continent. Moderate to severe water deficits may develop in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the north of India and Tamil Nadu in the south. Surplus flows are expected in the Indus River and moderate to severe surpluses may persist over Bangladesh. Conditions moderate in the mid forecast period though surpluses may develop in Jammu & Kashmir September through February 2018 and exceptional deficits may develop in south and central Gujarat in the final forecast period extending into 2018.
Widespread pockets of exceptional water surplus conditions will continue across central Russia and northern and southern Kazakhstan for much of the forecast period, moderating towards early 2018. Increased flows are expected in the Ob and Volga River basins. Recent exceptional deficits across northern Russia may retreat somewhat to the northern regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai. Moderate deficits are forecast to develop over much of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from June through November before moderating in early 2018.
Exceptional water deficits spanning the Arabian Peninsula are expected to continue through November affecting southern Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, all of Yemen, and most of Oman. Conditions are expected to moderate in early 2018. Moderate to exceptional surpluses in northern Iraq extending into Iran should subside by December. Exceptional surpluses in south central Iran are expected to persist through the forecast period before moderating between December and February 2018. A pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman persists throughout the forecast period into 2018.
In the near-term, Europe is forecast to experience generally moderate water deficits with more exceptional conditions affecting the Baltic States, Finland and southern Sweden. On the mainland the Benelux States as well as portions of Austria and Italy may experience more intense conditions. These are forecast to moderate steady through the mid-forecast period shifting to moderate surpluses across most of northern Europe in the December through February 2018 time frame. A pocket of exceptional surpluses in eastern Romania persists throughout the forecast, moderating slightly in early 2018.
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