The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and surpluses in eastern Turkey, northern Syria, the Euphrates and eastern Iraq, and western Iran. Intense deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s western and eastern thirds, and pockets of Oman. Extreme deficits will emerge in Qatar but deficits in United Arab Emirates will downgrade. In Iran, deficits will be severe to extreme in southern Yazd and Kerman into Sistan and Baluchistan.
The forecast through March indicates that water deficits will persist on much of the continent, but the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish considerably. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast across northern and central Africa along with pockets of exceptional deficit. Anomalies will be intense in Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Lesotho. Mild to moderate deficits are forecast for southern Africa. Intense surpluses will persist in western Tanzania.
Water deficits will shrink considerably in Central and Eastern Europe through March, but intense deficits are forecast for Finland, Sweden, Slovenia, Croatia, and Macedonia. Severe deficits will emerge on the Iberian Peninsula and deficits of varying intensity are forecast for Estonia, Latvia, northern Belarus, Italy, pockets of the Balkans, and central European Russia. Areas of surplus include northern European Russia, southern Sweden, pockets of the UK, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, Romania, and scattered pockets of Central and Eastern Europe.
The forecast through March indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink, but exceptional deficits will persist in southern Amazonas and the center of the country, and intense deficits will emerge Central-West and Southeast states and along the São Francisco River. Other areas of deficit include Peru and Chile. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, with exceptional surpluses in eastern Uruguay.
The forecast through March indicates a vast block of exceptional water deficits in southern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, and a path of intense deficits stretching to China’s western border. Beijing, Hebei, and western Liaoning will also see exceptional deficits, and deficits are forecast in Shandong and Shanxi. Other areas of deficits include Henan, Hubei, Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, eastern Yunnan, and Hong Kong. Surpluses in Southeast China will increase, with exceptional surpluses forecast on the Lower and Middle Yangtze River and in Jiangxi, Hunan, and into eastern Guangxi.
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