ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2016

14 October 2016

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2016 and running through June 2017 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast October 14, 2016 (pdf).

United States and Canada: The outlook for the United States through December indicates that water deficits will continue to dominate much of the northeastern US, though the expanse of exceptional deficits is expected to shrink. Significant deficits will also persist from Ohio through the South, in Southern California, and along the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. A large block of surpluses will persist in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. After December deficits across the country will diminish considerably but surpluses in the upper Midwest are expected to persist and moderate surpluses will emerge in the Rocky Mountain States.

The outlook for Canada through December indicates that, overall, the extent of exceptional water deficits will shrink, though a span across central Quebec will persist until March. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for most of Ontario and Quebec. Surpluses are forecast in the southwestern corner of Northern Ontario from Kenora north which are expected to persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for southern British Columbia near Kamloops and the Peace Country region of Northeast British Columbia through March.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Water deficits are forecast for much of southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Tamaulipas, the Baja Peninsula, and Guatemala through March or longer. Small pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in Michoacán and Oaxaca. Deficits on the Baja Peninsula are forecast to diminish by December, but emerge again in April with particular severity in Baja California Sur. Moderate surpluses are forecast to persist in Nicaragua through December and Costa Rica through March.

South America: Over the next few months South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits. However, from October through December exceptional deficits are forecast along Brazil’s northeastern coast, along with many parts of Chile, Tierra del Fuego, and the Falkland Islands. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, central Brazil, and northwestern Argentina. From January through March northern Brazil is forecast to transition from deficit to moderate surplus.

Europe: For the next three months water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe especially Spain, Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Ukraine. Although the severity will diminish the extent will increase. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for western European Russia. From January through March deficits are expected to diminish in both extent and severity across Europe. Surpluses will continue to emerge in European Russia during that period and will also emerge in the Baltics and southern Scandinavia.

Africa: The extent of exceptional deficits across Africa is forecast to shrink considerably through December. However, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for eastern Central African Republic and Republic of the Congo, and exceptional deficits are also expected along rivers in South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, and Kenya. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern Sudan into South Sudan and for the Nile. The forecast for January through March indicates primarily moderate water deficits across northern Africa, a scattered band of both deficits and surpluses across the Sahel, and primarily abnormal to moderate deficits in southern Africa.

Middle East: Widespread water deficits are forecast to persist throughout the Middle East, but the severity of deficits will diminish October through December and continue to diminish through March. Exceptional deficits are, however, forecast for southwestern Yemen through December. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in northern and eastern Turkey, and moderate deficits will emerge nearby in northwest Iran. Severe deficits are forecast for Syria and for Iraq from the Euphrates west.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional water deficits are forecast October through December in Russia from west of the Yamal Peninsula through the Central Siberian Plateau, and exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin, eastern Kyrgyzstan, and central and northeastern Kazakhstan. Moderate surpluses will emerge near the Gulf of Ob in Russia and to the southwest. Water deficits in eastern Turkmenistan and eastern Uzbekistan are forecast to diminish in severity. From January through March aforementioned exceptional water deficits in Russia will diminish as will surpluses in the Volga Basin. Surpluses are expected to persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

South Asia: Water surpluses in Rajasthan, India are forecast to transition to both deficit and surplus in the next few months, while surpluses in the eastern Ganges basin persist. Surpluses are also forecast for: Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. Deficits are forecast north of Delhi, in India’s southern tip, and in Sri Lanka. From January through March deficits in India’s north and south, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will diminish, but exceptional deficits are forecast in Gujarat.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through December, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia and in southern Thailand along the Gulf of Thailand. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in northern and southern Laos; Java; Gorontalo Province in central Sulawesi Island, Indonesia; and western Flores Island. After December much of Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and parts of Indonesia will transition to deficit.

East Asia: From October through December the severity of deficits on the Korean Peninsula will persist while that of the Shandong Peninsula is expected to diminish. The extent of exceptional deficits in Yunnan and Guangxi is forecast to shrink somewhat, but deficits will emerge from that region leading north. Surpluses on the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers will diminish, but surpluses will continue to emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, and southern Taiwan. Widespread surpluses that have dominated China recently are notably absent in the January through March forecast.

Australia: Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through December in central Queensland, along the southwest coast of Western Australia, and east of Spencer Gulf. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Murray Basin through March, and moderate deficits along South Australia’s Limestone Coast and southern Tasmania. Deficits in New Caledonia are expected to diminish.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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