The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.
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Though the extent of exceptional deficits from Missouri to the Gulf and to the Atlantic is expected to recede from March through May, exceptional deficits will persist in Arkansas, Missouri, and western Illinois, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout much of the US east of the Mississippi. Surpluses are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, northern Nevada, Central California, western Nevada, and western Colorado and are expected to be exceptional in Idaho, parts of Central California, and along the Columbia River.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2016 through August 2017 include: the US South; Chile; Scandinavia; northern Africa, southern Somalia, and South Africa; the Middle East; southern India; Cambodia; and northern Russia. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Minnesota, Nicaragua, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Jiangsu and Shanghai, China This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 December 2016.
The outlook for the United States through January indicates that water deficits will dominate the Ohio River Valley west through Arkansas and south to the Gulf, as well as the Delaware and lower Susquehanna drainages. Surpluses of varying severity are forecast for a vast block of the Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and eastern North Carolina. From February through April the severity of both deficits and surpluses will diminish and some states in the Midwest and Northeast will transition to near-normal conditions. However, surpluses will persist in much of the Northwest and Upper Midwest.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US South, Oaxaca (Mexico), Chile, Scandinavia, southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia, Iran, the Indian states of Karnataka, Kerala, and Gujarat, and Cambodia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Northwest and Upper Midwest, eastern North Carolina, southern British Columbia (Canada), Nicaragua, eastern Romania, southern Belarus, northeastern Poland, Nepal, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Java, Shanghai, Fujian, and the Warrego River Basin (Australia). This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 November 2016.
The outlook for the United States through December indicates that water deficits will continue to dominate much of the northeastern US, though the expanse of exceptional deficits is expected to shrink. Significant deficits will also persist from Ohio through the South, in Southern California, and along the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. A large block of surpluses will persist in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. After December deficits across the country will diminish considerably but surpluses in the upper Midwest are expected to persist and moderate surpluses will emerge in the Rocky Mountain States.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast, central Quebec (Canada), Amapá (Brazil), Chile, western Ukraine, southwest Yemen, Gujarat (India), Cambodia, Malay Peninsula, Korean Peninsula, and Shandong Peninsula (China). Water surpluses are forecast for: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nicaragua, central Colombia, western European Russia, Volga Basin, eastern Ganges Basin, Nepal, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Java, Yangtze River, Fujian (China), and Murray River Basin.. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 October 2016.
The forecast for the United States through November includes widespread extreme water deficits throughout the East and on the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, with moderate deficits in the West. A large pocket of surpluses is forecast along the Upper Mississippi River, encompassing southern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois. From December through February deficits across the US are forecast to diminish; surpluses will persist in Minnesota and Wisconsin and will continue to emerge southward.
The outlook for the United States through October indicates the persistence of widespread severe to extreme water deficits throughout the Northeast and the continued emergence of severe deficits in the Southeast. Deficits are also forecast for the West, Southwest, and Northern Border States. Water surpluses are forecast in western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, eastern Texas, and southwestern Kentucky. After October, widespread deficits are forecast to diminish in extent and severity with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, and in the Southeast. Surpluses are expected to persist in Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southern California and central Arizona, and later, throughout the Rocky Mountains States.
The outlook for the United States indicates widespread exceptional water deficits throughout the Northeast from July through September. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for parts of the Midwest and Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and California. Widespread water surpluses are expected in eastern Texas and surpluses are also forecast in West Virginia and Nebraska. After September deficits will diminish with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses in Texas will diminish. Widespread surpluses are forecast to emerge in Wisconsin and across the Mississippi River into Minnesota.