Moderate water deficits, punctuated by more intense pockets, are expected across a large portion of eastern and southeastern Australia, scattered across the north, and in the southwest. Deficits may be intense in the southwest, and in the east near Adelaide and Melbourne, from Canberra to Sydney, and around Brisbane. Moderate deficits are forecast in New Zealand and intense deficits in New Caledonia.
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Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
Mainland Australia is forecast to transition from widespread exceptional water deficit to mild conditions, with more intense deficits in Tasmania. Areas of moderate deficit include eastern South Australia, Victoria, the Murray-Darling Basin, and the east coast to Brisbane. Surpluses will persist in the Kimberley region, WA; shrink along the Victoria River and emerge in Arnhem Land, NT; re-emerge in northern Cape York Peninsula, QLD; and continue to emerge in the Mackenzie River area west of Rockhampton, QLD. Deficits in New Caledonia and New Zealand will moderate.
Exceptional deficits observed in recent months are forecast to nearly disappear, though intense deficits will persist in western Tasmania and the southwestern tip of Western Australia. The near-term forecast includes moderate deficits in South Australia, becoming more intense past the Eyre Peninsula and along Victoria’s coast. Moderate deficits are expected in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin which may be more severe in Riverina, and moderate deficits are forecast for New Zealand. After March, deficits will be mild overall but more severe in Busselton, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Recent exceptional water deficits in Australia are forecast to diminish considerably overall, but persist in Tasmania and the southwestern tip of Western Australia. In the near-term, deficits are expected in much of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, and along Australia’s southeastern coast where deficits may be intense. Exceptional surpluses are forecast near Bundaberg, Queensland. After January, intense deficits will emerge in southwest Queensland and into New South Wales and South Australia. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast elsewhere in Queensland and in southeastern Australia.
Exceptional deficits observed in recent months over much of Australia are forecast to diminish considerably in the near-term and through June 2018. Through December, however, exceptional deficits are forecast for Tasmania and the southwest tip of Western Australia. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast from Adelaide through Victoria and into the eastern Murray-Darling Basin in New South Wales. Moderate deficits are expected in New Caledonia and South Island, New Zealand. Surpluses are forecast for the Ord River Basin, northeastern Queensland, and Christchurch, New Zealand.
Exceptional water deficits observed in recent months over much of Australia are forecast to diminish considerably in the near-term and through May 2018. However, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to persist through February in Tasmania and the southernmost tip of Western Australia. From September through November moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the southeast, exceptional deficits will persist in Northern Territory’s Top End, and surpluses will continue to emerge along Queensland’s northeast coast.
Exceptional water deficits observed in recent months over much of Australia should diminish considerably in the near-term and through April 2018. However, significant deficits are forecast through October in: Western Australia from the Hamersley Range to the southernmost tip; southeastern Australia and Tasmania; the north across Northern Territory and Queensland; and, New Caledonia. Deficits may be exceptional north and south of Perth; east of Melbourne; central Tasmania; around the Gulf of Carpentaria; and Darwin. Along Queensland’s northeast coast surpluses will persist near Mackay. Past October moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Victoria and New South Wales.
Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through December in central Queensland, along the southwest coast of Western Australia, and east of Spencer Gulf. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Murray Basin through March, and moderate deficits along South Australia’s Limestone Coast and southern Tasmania. Deficits in New Caledonia are expected to diminish.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast, central Quebec (Canada), Amapá (Brazil), Chile, western Ukraine, southwest Yemen, Gujarat (India), Cambodia, Malay Peninsula, Korean Peninsula, and Shandong Peninsula (China). Water surpluses are forecast for: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nicaragua, central Colombia, western European Russia, Volga Basin, eastern Ganges Basin, Nepal, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Java, Yangtze River, Fujian (China), and Murray River Basin.. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 October 2016.