*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits persist in Darwin, Tasmania, Perth, New Caledonia

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits persist in Darwin, Tasmania, Perth, New Caledonia

Widespread extreme water deficits spanning the middle of the country are expected to subside in the June through August forecast period. Deficits will persist in the Darwin region of the Northern Territory, on Tasmania, and in the southwestern extents of Western Australia through November. Recent surplus conditions in northern Western Australia, east of Darwin, and along the central Queensland coast are expected persist through November. In the December through February 2018 forecast period conditions are forecast to normalize with the exception of moderate deficits south of Darwin and in the Perth region of Western Australia.

East Asia: Water deficits will continue to emerge in northeast China & Korea

East Asia: Water deficits will continue to emerge in northeast China & Korea

Mixed conditions across East Asia are expected to continue over the next three months with moderate water deficits in China’s southern provinces of Guizhou and Guangxi persisting throughout the forecast period. Deficits on the Korean peninsula may shift from the vicinity of Incheon and Seoul to cover the majority of North Korea. Northeastern China is expected to develop severe to exceptional deficits that may intensify by the December through February 2018 period. Surpluses are indicated in the near-term for western Tibet but moderating over the extended forecast.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to emerge in northern Vietnam; surpluses persist in Phetchaburi, Thailand

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits to emerge in northern Vietnam; surpluses persist in Phetchaburi, Thailand

Much of the region has experienced exceptional water surplus conditions in the most recent observations. These moderate in the near-term forecast and subside completely September through February 2018. Recently observed exceptional deficits in Cambodia and Papua New Guinea subside during the June through August period. In the December through February 2018 forecast period deficits may emerge over mainland Malaysia and coastal Myanmar.

South Asia: Some water surplus to persist in Bangladesh; deficits in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand

South Asia: Some water surplus to persist in Bangladesh; deficits in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand

In the June through August forecast period water conditions are largely moderate across the sub-continent. Moderate to severe water deficits may develop in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the north of India and Tamil Nadu in the south. Surplus flows are expected in the Indus River and moderate to severe surpluses may persist over Bangladesh. Conditions moderate in the mid forecast period though surpluses may develop in Jammu & Kashmir September through February 2018 and exceptional deficits may develop in south and central Gujarat in the final forecast period extending into 2018.  

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Widespread pockets of exceptional water surplus conditions will continue across central Russia and northern and southern Kazakhstan for much of the forecast period, moderating towards early 2018. Increased flows are expected in the Ob and Volga River basins. Recent exceptional deficits across northern Russia may retreat somewhat to the northern regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai. Moderate deficits are forecast to develop over much of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from June through November before moderating in early 2018.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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