*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025

The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread throughout Queensland
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits ...

Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits persist in Maritime SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Deficits remain in Afghanistan, ...

Exceptional surpluses in India will mostly dissipate, transitioning to moderate to severe surpluses. Exceptional deficits will remain in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Deficits remain in Afghanistan, Pakistan, surpluses persist in India

South America: Exceptional water deficits forecast for northern Brazil, surpluses in Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina

Exceptional water deficits may continue across much of northern Brazil and coastal Peru and Chile through May 2016. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity through May with widespread exceptional surpluses anticipated. Northern South America may transition from deficit to surplus March through May.

Mexico & Central America: Exceptional water deficits forecast for southern Mexico, Central America

Widespread exceptional water deficits are forecast for southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, northwest Costa Rica, and western Panama. Surpluses may continue to emerge in Mexico’s northwestern state of Chihuahua. 

Europe: Transition ahead from water deficits to surpluses

Water deficits may persist in much of Europe through October, with the exception of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and northern Sweden. The forecast, however, indicates a transition to surpluses in many areas of Western and Central Europe from November 2015 through May 2016. In contrast, water deficits are expected during this time-frame in Mediterranean Spain, Italy, and the Balkan Peninsula.

Canada: Widespread water deficits with large pockets of exceptional deficits

Widespread water deficits with large pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in Canada’s Central Plains, and eastern Ontario into Quebec. Deficits from British Columbia to Manitoba may persist through May. Deficits in Ontario and Quebec may increase in extent and severity March through May. 

China, Mongolia, South Korea, Japan: Drought in Northern China, Mongolia, S. Korea; Flooding in Japan

Widespread deficits may continue in North China and Mongolia. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China and southern Honshu, Japan. Deficits are forecast for northern Honshu and for Hokkaido, Japan. Exceptional deficits may persist in South Korea before diminishing somewhat in severity beginning in February 2016.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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