The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Water deficits are forecast through September in parts of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, the Baltics, southern Norway and Sweden, and Finland. Surpluses are expected in northern France and across the border into Germany, Belgium, and in southern Netherlands. From October on, surpluses are expected to emerge, first in Scotland, Germany, Norway and Sweden; and later in other parts of Central Europe, the Baltics, and Finland. Deficits are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across North Africa, gradually diminishing in extent and severity. Deficits of varying severity will also persist in much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast in northern Zambia though November. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in central Botswana and in South Africa near Botswana in July. Water surpluses are forecast to persist through October in Tanzania and northeastern Mozambique.
Water deficits are forecast for much of India, Pakistan, and western Afghanistan while surpluses are expected throughout Bangladesh, in central Nepal, Jammu and Kashmir, eastern Afghanistan, and western Sri Lanka. Deficits may be especially severe in July throughout India’s southern half. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in the Ganges Basin in July, and exceptional surpluses are forecast along the northern Indus through Punjab, Pakistan in July and August. Deficits are forecast to begin emerging in Bhutan, northeastern Indian states, and Myanmar in August and continue to emerge through March.
The outlook for Canada indicates large pockets of exceptional water deficits through September in northern Manitoba, eastern Ontario, and central Quebec, along with deficits of generally lesser severity in British Columbia and the Prairie Provinces. Surpluses are forecast northwest of Quebec City, on the southern shore of Hudson Bay, and in northern Saskatchewan. From October on, deficits across the country are forecast to diminish and surpluses will emerge in southern Ontario and northern Quebec.
Water deficits are forecast to persist across parts of northern Australia – particularly northernmost regions of the Northern Territory and the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria – and also in the southwest tip of Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Caledonia. From July through September surpluses are forecast to persist near the Barcoo and Fitzroy Rivers in Queensland, and emerge west of Brisbane. Surpluses will continue to emerge north of Adelaide east of Spencer Gulf in South Australia, and will emerge in the center of New South Wales.
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