The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
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The December 2016 Precipitation & Temperature Outlook indicates that many parts of South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia are forecast to be much warmer than normal. Significant dry anomalies are expected to envelope Sri Lanka. Wet anomalies are forecast for Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, Myanmar, the Malaysian Peninsula, Western Australia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Water surpluses are forecast for central India for the next several months, though the extent and severity will diminish. Deficits are forecast for southern and northwestern India, western Afghanistan and southern Pakistan. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Odisha, India in August and for Gujarat in December. Deficits will emerge in Sri Lanka in December. Moderate surpluses are expected to persist in Bangladesh through April.
Water deficits are forecast for much of India, Pakistan, and western Afghanistan while surpluses are expected throughout Bangladesh, in central Nepal, Jammu and Kashmir, eastern Afghanistan, and western Sri Lanka. Deficits may be especially severe in July throughout India’s southern half. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in the Ganges Basin in July, and exceptional surpluses are forecast along the northern Indus through Punjab, Pakistan in July and August. Deficits are forecast to begin emerging in Bhutan, northeastern Indian states, and Myanmar in August and continue to emerge through March.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast, eastern Ontario, Veracruz, Guatemala, central Brazil, the Baltics, North Africa, northern Zambia, southern India, Thailand, Cambodia, the Mekong Delta, the Malay Peninsula, and Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: eastern Texas, West Virginia, Nebraska, northern France, Tanzania, Kazakhstan, the northern Indus River in Pakistan, and the Yangtze River. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 July 2016.
Moderate water surpluses are forecast in India in an area fanning out from Gujarat. Deficits are expected in much of India’s southern half from Maharashtra south, and in central Odisha, north of Delhi, and the Thar Desert. Surpluses are forecast in eastern Afghanistan, Jammu and Kashmir, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Deficits are expected to persist in western Afghanistan and southwestern Pakistan. Deficits are forecast to begin emerging in Bhutan and northeastern India states in July and increase through February.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: central Brazil, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Finland, the Baltics, Thailand, the Malay Peninsula, and Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: Texas, Sao Paulo, northern France, northwestern Iberian Peninsula, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, western Borneo, southeast China, and Kazakhstan. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 June 2016.
The forecast indicates a transition in India from widespread and exceptional water deficits throughout the country to surpluses in India’s western midsection, in the Ganges Basin, and near Chennai. Surpluses are also forecast in India’s northernmost states and in much of Bangladesh. In general, water surpluses are forecast for eastern Afghanistan and deficits in the west. Deficits are expected to persist in southern Pakistan, and both deficits and surpluses are expected in the north.
The forecast through December 2016 indicates water deficits in southern India but moderate surpluses for much of the remainder of the country. In Afghanistan and Pakistan both deficits and surpluses are expected.
Widespread water deficits are forecast in India through May, with exceptional deficits from Gujarat through Rajasthan, and in India's southern tip. From June through November a transition to moderate surpluses is forecast across central India; deficits are expected in Assam. Flooding is forecast in August along the Gandaki River in Nepal.