15 December 2016

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in September 2016 and running through August 2017 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast December 15, 2016 (pdf).

United States and Canada: In the US, water deficits are forecast to persist through February from Pennsylvania and Ohio southward to the Gulf but will diminish in severity thereafter. Much of the far Northeast, with the exception of Vermont, is expected to return to near-normal conditions December through February. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa through February, and Idaho, western Montana, and Washington through May. Moderate deficits will emerge March through May in Maine, southern New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and from North Carolina through Florida.

The forecast for Canada through February indicates that exceptional deficits will shrink in Quebec, though a vast expanse will remain surrounding Lake Mistassini. Deficits will also persist in southern Newfoundland, New Brunswick, northeastern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia. Surpluses are forecast across Ontario from Kenora District in the west to Quebec; Manitoba from Hudson Bay reaching southwest to Lake Winnipeg; northwestern Saskatchewan; and southern British Columbia. After February much of Ontario will transition from surplus to mostly moderate deficit.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Water deficits of modest severity are forecast throughout many parts of Mexico over the next six months with pockets of exceptional deficits in Oaxaca, Yucatán, Guerrero, Michoacán, western Jalisco, and Nayarit. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast to persist in western Cuba and emerge in eastern Cuba and in Jamaica through February. Deficits will persist in Guatemala; surpluses will persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica but may transition to both surplus and deficit.

South America: Over the next few months South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits. However, from December through February large pockets of exceptional deficits are forecast across central Brazil, and deficits are also forecast for Venezuela, French Guiana, western Bolivia, and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central and northeastern Colombia; northern Pará, Brazil; La Pampa, Argentina; and, both deficits and surpluses between the Chabut and Desaguadero Rivers in Argentina. After February overall conditions will improve across the continent.

Europe: Notable water deficits are forecast to persist through February in eastern Norway and in Sweden; and through May in Finland and in Russia east of the White Sea. Eastern Europe will continue a transition to water surplus which will persist through May. A wide area of water surplus is forecast to emerge March through May in Russia from the Gulf of Finland south to Ukraine.

Africa: In clear contrast to observed conditions in prior months, the forecast through August 2017 indicates the absence of exceptional deficits in southern Africa. The extent of exceptional deficits across the northern half of the continent will diminish considerably through February, but pockets of extreme deficits will persist in eastern Ethiopia and Somalia through February and will emerge in Benin and Nigeria. Thereafter, deficits of notable severity will emerge in Niger, northern Sudan, and Egypt. Exceptional surpluses will persist through February surrounding Bangui in Central African Republic and through May around the White Nile in southeast Sudan and South Sudan.

Middle East: The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through August 2017 indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East, first diminishing in severity through February – with a significant reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits – before increasing in both extent and severity thereafter. Extreme deficits are forecast for southern Oman from March through May.

Central Asia and Russia: Drier than normal water conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea past the Central Siberian Plateau through August, though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish somewhat. Both surpluses and deficits are forecast for the Ural River watershed in northwestern Kazakhstan, and surpluses are forecast for central and eastern Kazakhstan. Overall, moderate deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and surpluses in Kyrgyzstan.

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits will persist in southern India through February and will emerge in Gujarat and persist through May. Surpluses in the Chambal and Ganges Basins will transition to both deficits and surpluses through February, after which surpluses are forecast in West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar. Surpluses are forecast in western Myanmar through February, and in Nepal and Bangladesh through May. Moderate deficits are expected in southern Pakistan through February.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through February, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia through May. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through February in Laos and in central Vietnam through May. Surpluses of lesser severity are forecast for the next three months in the southern Malay Peninsula, Java, southern Vietnam, and Gorontalo, Indonesia.

East Asia: Water surpluses are forecast to persist through February in a vast area along China’s coast from Jiangsu south through Guangdong and in Hainan, including exceptional surpluses in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, and southern Taiwan. Water deficits will persist through February on the Liaodong Peninsula and in northeast North Korea, and through May near Incheon, South Korea and in southern Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan with exceptional severity in Yunnan.

Australia: The overall progression of water conditions in Australia for the next 12 months indicates few significant anomalies. Pockets of exceptional surplus are forecast along the southern coast of Western Australia, and east of Port Pirie on Spencer Gulf in South Australia which will persist through May. Moderate deficits in Far North Queensland are expected to persist through August. Deficits may also linger south of Perth and in Tasmania.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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