The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for mainland Southeast Asia, Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sumatra, and Luzon and Mindanao in the Philippines; deficits may be exceptional in Peninsular Malaysia. Exceptional deficits in Cambodia will shrink considerably but persist in a pocket northeast of Tonlé Sap. Severe deficits are forecast for Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region. Surpluses are forecast for central Philippines. After June, anomalies in the region will downgrade though severe deficits will continue in Peninsular Malaysia.
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The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
Water surpluses are forecast for Laos, central Vietnam, and the Malay Peninsula through March. Exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia near Tonlé Sap Lake during this period. After March, a transition to water deficits in parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea is forecast, and deficits will continue to emerge through September.
The December 2016 Precipitation & Temperature Outlook indicates that many parts of South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia are forecast to be much warmer than normal. Significant dry anomalies are expected to envelope Sri Lanka. Wet anomalies are forecast for Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, Myanmar, the Malaysian Peninsula, Western Australia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Most noteworthy in the November 2016 Outlook is the forecast of a vast expanse of exceptionally warmer temperatures for the US Midwest and northward through Canada. Significant warm anomalies are also expected in coastal West Africa, the Gulf of Guinea, Madagascar, India's southern tip, and Southeast Asia. Exceptional dry anomalies are forecast along South America's northern Pacific coast and in southern Ethiopia. Areas forecast to experience wet anomalies include northern Brazil and northern Australia.
The October Outlook indicates a large expanse of exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures forecast from Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, and coastal West Africa, along with widespread significant warm anomalies in Western Europe, Russia, and Southeast Asia. Exceptional dry anomalies are forecast for Guinea-Bissau and western Guinea. Areas with a forecast of wet anomalies include Colombia, Peru, Gabon, Java, and northern Australia.
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Surpluses in western Borneo will diminish by September while surpluses on Java, and Flores Island may persist longer. From November on, deficits will increase in extent and severity on the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, and will emerge in northeastern Borneo.
The August forecast indicates widespread severe to exceptional warm anomalies across vast stretches of northern South America, North Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Southeast Asia, with anomalies of lesser severity in many other parts of the world. Scattered precipitation anomalies include dry anomalies in Nepal and in Amapá, Brazil. Wet anomalies are predicted for the island of New Guinea, eastern Kyrgyzstan, China's Taklamakan Desert, Arizona, and Sonora.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits forecast for Thailand, Cambodia, Malay Peninsula, Timor
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit through March 2017, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Exceptional deficits will emerge in the Mekong Delta in July, and are forecast for Timor through October. Surpluses in western Borneo will gradually diminish through September as will surpluses on Java and Flores Island, though they may persist longer. Sumatra will transition from surplus to deficit beginning in September.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast, eastern Ontario, Veracruz, Guatemala, central Brazil, the Baltics, North Africa, northern Zambia, southern India, Thailand, Cambodia, the Mekong Delta, the Malay Peninsula, and Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: eastern Texas, West Virginia, Nebraska, northern France, Tanzania, Kazakhstan, the northern Indus River in Pakistan, and the Yangtze River. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 July 2016.