Intense water surpluses in the Ohio River Valley and the Lower Mississippi Basin will retreat considerably. Surpluses in western Montana and northern Idaho will remain intense. Exceptional deficits will persist in Utah and increase in southwest Colorado, but deficits in surrounding states will moderate. On the East Coast deficits will retreat, except in South Carolina and Georgia. Southern Florida will transition from deficit to surplus. Moderate deficits are forecast for Nebraska, eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin.
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Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
The forecast through June indicates that deficits will diminish and downgrade in the South Atlantic States, retreat considerably in the Gulf States, downgrade to moderate in the Southern Plains States, persist with intensity in the Southwest, and shrink in central California. Surpluses are forecast for Idaho, Montana, western Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, and along the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses will be exceptional in Idaho and Montana. Surpluses in the Ohio River Valley will diminish. After June, anomalies will downgrade, but persist.
Water surpluses will continue to emerge in southern Michigan and the Ohio River Valley. Exceptional surplus is expected on the Missouri River, western Montana, Idaho, and Washington. Intense deficits will continue in the West and Southwest. Moderate deficits are forecast for Oregon, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and most of Texas west of the Brazos River, with severe conditions in the Panhandle. Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi will transition out of deficit, with moderate surplus emerging in Arkansas into surrounding states. Deficits in the Mid-Atlantic States will shrink.
Widespread water deficits are forecast in much of the eastern half of the US through December and may be exceptional in the Virginias and Pennsylvania. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are predicted in central Minnesota. Surpluses will continue to emerge in northwestern Wisconsin, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Florida, and Idaho and its neighbors. After December deficits in the East are expected to diminish, but intense deficits will persist in the Carolinas and southern Louisiana. Intense surpluses will continue to emerge in much of Minnesota.
The near-term forecast through September shows a distribution pattern of water anomalies similar to the prior three months with some decrease in intensity. However, surpluses are forecast to increase in the central Gulf Coast. Beyond September water anomalies will continue to become less severe, though pockets of exceptional surplus will persist in Idaho and its neighbors. The forecast through March 2018 indicates the emergence of primarily moderate surpluses in many parts of the country.
Exceptional water surplus conditions spanning the Pacific northwestern states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are expected to moderate in the near-term. Moderate surpluses are expected to develop along the central Gulf Coast and extend up the Mississippi Basin through the forecast period, settling over the northern Great Plains states by early 2018. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to develop over most of Alaska and moderate but persist throughout the forecast period.
Severe to exceptional water deficits will continue to emerge in the South and South Atlantic states through September, with moderate deficits in the Northeast and in the Ohio River Valley, though deficits are expected to diminish somewhat in severity after June. Moderate deficits may emerge on the Arkansas and Colorado Rivers and moderate to severe deficits in northern Colorado from June through September. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist in Idaho through June, along with surpluses of varying intensity in the Pacific Northwest and California. After June the extent and severity of these surpluses is forecast to diminish.
Water deficits are forecast for Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, as well as in a line extending northeast from Mississippi through Alabama, northern Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Surpluses are expected in southern Idaho, northeastern Nevada, and northwestern Utah.
The outlook for the United States through October indicates the persistence of widespread severe to extreme water deficits throughout the Northeast and the continued emergence of severe deficits in the Southeast. Deficits are also forecast for the West, Southwest, and Northern Border States. Water surpluses are forecast in western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, eastern Texas, and southwestern Kentucky. After October, widespread deficits are forecast to diminish in extent and severity with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, and in the Southeast. Surpluses are expected to persist in Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southern California and central Arizona, and later, throughout the Rocky Mountains States.