Exceptional water deficits are forecast for southern Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula, with severe to exceptional deficits forecast to encompass Yemen and western Oman. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey. Later in the forecast moderate water deficits in the United Arab Emirates may become exceptional.
Africa: Water deficits forecast across the Northwest, coastal West Africa, & southern Africa; surpluses in East Africa & the Sahel
Water deficits are forecast in Northwest Africa, coastal West Africa and southern Africa, with particular persistence in coastal West Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, especially in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Ethiopia, Sudan, the Sahel, and northeastern Mozambique.
Europe: Severe to exceptional water deficits forecast in Mediterranean Europe, Finland, & the Baltics; surpluses in Ireland, Wales, Scotland
Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, Campania (Italy), southern Greece, and Crete. Deficits are also forecast in Finland and the Baltics. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America, surpluses in southern Brazil & central Argentina
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America. Deficits in Colombia and Venezuela may moderate somewhat March through May, and northwestern Venezuela may transition from deficits to exceptional surpluses. Thereafter, deficits are forecast to re-emerge as exceptional drought June through November across much of northern South America. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Paraguay, across its eastern border into southern Brazil, and in central Argentina.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits to persist in southern Mexico, emerge later in Central America
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico with exceptional severity. Surpluses are forecast along the Rio Grande River and in a wide path from Sonora southward following the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountain range. Surpluses in central Cuba are forecast to persist through the spring months. Overall for the year moderate deficits are expected in Guatemala and Honduras, though more severe deficits are forecast throughout Central America in the latter months of the forecast period.