The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Water surpluses in Kazakhstan will begin to transition to conditions of both deficits and surpluses in the next few months. Moderate to severe deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to continue to emerge through November, abate for several months, and then re-emerge. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Basin. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin August through October, followed by widespread and exceptional surpluses November through January.
The outlook for Canada indicates a predominance of water deficits, with large pockets of exceptional deficits persisting in northern Manitoba and central Quebec through October. Deficits will emerge in central Ontario during this time and surpluses will persist in northwest Saskatchewan and across the border into Alberta. By November deficit conditions throughout the country are forecast to ameliorate, though large areas of moderate deficits will remain. Surpluses will continue to emerge in southern British Columbia.
Deficits on the Baja Peninsula are forecast through October, with some abatement in August. Deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico through April. Surpluses are expected in northeastern Sonora, Mexico, northern Costa Rica, and eastern Panama through October. Deficits are forecast to emerge in Haiti. From November on moderate deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.
Despite recent flooding in northern Tasmania, water deficits are forecast to persist in western Tasmania through April, with greatest severity in August. Deficits in New Caledonia are forecast to persist through October; deficits across some far northern regions of Australia may linger through November; and deficits in the southwest tip of Western Australia, south of Adelaide, and in the Melbourne area will persist through April. Water surpluses are forecast for the Fitzroy River Basin and southwest of there, also in the Upper Murray River catchment.
Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in China along the Yellow River and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River through October. Deficits will continue to emerge in Shandong, eastern Yunnan, and western Guangxi. Widespread deficits are forecast for the Korean Peninsula from September on, and deficits will continue to emerge in Southeast and Northeast China. Deficits may recede in Honshu, Japan in October before re-emerging.
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