The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Widespread water deficits are forecast to persist throughout the Middle East, but the severity of deficits will diminish October through December and continue to diminish through March. Exceptional deficits are, however, forecast for southwestern Yemen through December. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in northern and eastern Turkey, and moderate deficits will emerge nearby in northwest Iran. Severe deficits are forecast for Syria and for Iraq from the Euphrates west.
The extent of exceptional deficits across Africa is forecast to shrink considerably through December. However, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for eastern Central African Republic and Republic of the Congo, and exceptional deficits are also expected along rivers in South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, and Kenya. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern Sudan into South Sudan and for the Nile. The forecast for January through March indicates primarily moderate water deficits across northern Africa, a scattered band of both deficits and surpluses across the Sahel, and primarily abnormal to moderate deficits in southern Africa.
From October through December the severity of deficits on the Korean Peninsula will persist while that of the Shandong Peninsula is expected to diminish. The extent of exceptional deficits in Yunnan and Guangxi is forecast to shrink somewhat, but deficits will emerge from that region leading north. Surpluses on the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers will diminish, but surpluses will continue to emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, and southern Taiwan. Widespread surpluses that have dominated China recently are notably absent in the January through March forecast.
Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through December, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia and in southern Thailand along the Gulf of Thailand. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in northern and southern Laos; Java; Gorontalo Province in central Sulawesi Island, Indonesia; and western Flores Island. After December much of Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and parts of Indonesia will transition to deficit.
Over the next few months South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits. However, from October through December exceptional deficits are forecast along Brazil’s northeastern coast, along with many parts of Chile, Tierra del Fuego, and the Falkland Islands. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, central Brazil, and northwestern Argentina. From January through March northern Brazil is forecast to transition from deficit to moderate surplus.
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