The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through March indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink somewhat but persist, and deficits in Thailand will downgrade slightly but remain widespread. Other areas of deficit include the Philippines, eastern Borneo, Sumatra’s southern tip, and Papua New Guinea. Surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam, north-central Laos, most of Sumatra, western Indonesian Borneo, and pockets of Java.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits in western and southern India with exceptional deficits in Gujarat and Karnataka. Surpluses are forecast for Uttar Pradesh into western Nepal, and in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir. Exceptional deficits are forecast in southeastern Pakistan, moderate deficits in the southwest, and surpluses in the northeast. Surpluses are expected in Bangladesh and will be exceptional in Chittagong Division reaching into Mizoram, India.
The forecast through March indicates intense water surpluses in the Ob and Yenisei River Basins in Russia. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the Ural River Watershed in northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border into Russia, and in the Upper Volga River Basin and parts of Trans Volga. Primarily moderate surpluses are expected along the Ertis (Irtysh), Esil, and Ile Rivers in Kazakhstan, and the Zarafshon River in eastern Uzbekistan. Severe deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and surpluses in eastern Turkey, northern Syria, the Euphrates and eastern Iraq, and western Iran. Intense deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s western and eastern thirds, and pockets of Oman. Extreme deficits will emerge in Qatar but deficits in United Arab Emirates will downgrade. In Iran, deficits will be severe to extreme in southern Yazd and Kerman into Sistan and Baluchistan.
The forecast through March indicates that water deficits will persist on much of the continent, but the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish considerably. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast across northern and central Africa along with pockets of exceptional deficit. Anomalies will be intense in Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Lesotho. Mild to moderate deficits are forecast for southern Africa. Intense surpluses will persist in western Tanzania.
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