The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates moderate water deficits across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The southern Sahara and the Sahel will be near-normal, and deficits in the Horn will downgrade. Mild deficits will cover much of southern Africa, punctuated by surpluses in East Africa and some pockets of intense deficit from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo, in southern Angola, northern Namibia, and western Botswana.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water surpluses will shrink in southern Quebec. Some surpluses are forecast near Toronto and Montreal, deficits from Regina to Winnipeg, and intense deficits in southern Vancouver Island. Exceptional deficits will persist along Ontario’s eastern border and in large pockets of Quebec, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Surpluses will increase in Newfoundland and Labrador and persist in a large block spanning the northern Alberta-Saskatchewan border.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that Mexico will transition to nearly normal water conditions in the north with some deficits in Baja and persistent surpluses in northern Coahuila. A small pocket of severe deficit is forecast for northern Puebla State. Moderate deficits are expected in pockets of northern Central America, and surpluses in pockets of the south. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Haiti.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water surpluses in southeastern China will shrink but remain widespread and intense in the Pearl River Basin with exceptional surpluses in Guangdong. Moderate surpluses are forecast along the Yellow (Huang He) River. Deficits will shrink in Henan and Hubei but will be intense. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast in southern North Korea and across the border into South Korea, and in northern Japan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2019 through February 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Somalia, Angola, and Namibia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, western Iran, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 10 June 2019
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