Water surpluses will continue to emerge in southern Michigan and the Ohio River Valley. Exceptional surplus is expected on the Missouri River, western Montana, Idaho, and Washington. Intense deficits will continue in the West and Southwest. Moderate deficits are forecast for Oregon, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and most of Texas west of the Brazos River, with severe conditions in the Panhandle. Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi will transition out of deficit, with moderate surplus emerging in Arkansas into surrounding states. Deficits in the Mid-Atlantic States will shrink.
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The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.
Exceptional water surplus conditions spanning the Pacific northwestern states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are expected to moderate in the near-term. Moderate surpluses are expected to develop along the central Gulf Coast and extend up the Mississippi Basin through the forecast period, settling over the northern Great Plains states by early 2018. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to develop over most of Alaska and moderate but persist throughout the forecast period.
Though the extent of exceptional deficits from Missouri to the Gulf and to the Atlantic is expected to recede from March through May, exceptional deficits will persist in Arkansas, Missouri, and western Illinois, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout much of the US east of the Mississippi. Surpluses are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, northern Nevada, Central California, western Nevada, and western Colorado and are expected to be exceptional in Idaho, parts of Central California, and along the Columbia River.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US South, Oaxaca (Mexico), Chile, Scandinavia, southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia, Iran, the Indian states of Karnataka, Kerala, and Gujarat, and Cambodia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Northwest and Upper Midwest, eastern North Carolina, southern British Columbia (Canada), Nicaragua, eastern Romania, southern Belarus, northeastern Poland, Nepal, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Java, Shanghai, Fujian, and the Warrego River Basin (Australia). This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 November 2016.
The outlook for the United States through October indicates the persistence of widespread severe to extreme water deficits throughout the Northeast and the continued emergence of severe deficits in the Southeast. Deficits are also forecast for the West, Southwest, and Northern Border States. Water surpluses are forecast in western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, eastern Texas, and southwestern Kentucky. After October, widespread deficits are forecast to diminish in extent and severity with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, and in the Southeast. Surpluses are expected to persist in Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southern California and central Arizona, and later, throughout the Rocky Mountains States.
The outlook for the United States indicates widespread exceptional water deficits throughout the Northeast from July through September. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for parts of the Midwest and Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and California. Widespread water surpluses are expected in eastern Texas and surpluses are also forecast in West Virginia and Nebraska. After September deficits will diminish with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses in Texas will diminish. Widespread surpluses are forecast to emerge in Wisconsin and across the Mississippi River into Minnesota.
The outlook for the United States indicates widespread and varied water anomalies for much of the country. Water deficits are forecast for much of the Northeast, parts of the Southeast, Upper Midwest, and West, which are expected to be most severe June through August, particularly in the Northeast and West. Water surpluses are forecast for a vast portion of Texas which are also expected to be of greatest extent and exceptional severity through August.
The overall outlook for much of the United States indicates only moderate water anomalies for much of the country. However the forecast for May through July includes the emergence of some severe deficits in the Northeast, along the East Coast, and in the Upper Midwest which will persist through October. Exceptional water deficits will also persist in much of southern California and southwestern Arizona. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in northeastern Nevada and across the border into Idaho, eastern Texas, parts of Nebraska, scattered pockets in the Northwest, south-central Alaska, and the western half of the island of Hawaii.