*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October ...

This month’s In Focus highlights:
- El Niño Nears Its Peak
- Ethiopia: Conflict and Crop Failure in the North
- India’s Lopsided Monsoon

*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025

The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread throughout Queensland
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits ...

Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits persist in Maritime SE Asia

South Asia: Water deficits to persist in India, transition to moderate surpluses in June

Widespread water deficits are forecast in India through May, with exceptional deficits from Gujarat through Rajasthan, and in India's southern tip. From June through November a transition to moderate surpluses is forecast across central India; deficits are expected in Assam. Flooding is forecast in August along the Gandaki River in Nepal.

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits forecast for Yemen, western Oman, and later in UAE

Exceptional water deficits are forecast for southern Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula, with severe to exceptional deficits forecast to encompass Yemen and western Oman. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey. Later in the forecast moderate water deficits in the United Arab Emirates may become exceptional.

Africa: Water deficits forecast across the Northwest, coastal West Africa, & southern Africa; surpluses in East Africa & the Sahel

Water deficits are forecast in Northwest Africa, coastal West Africa and southern Africa, with particular persistence in coastal West Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, especially in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Ethiopia, Sudan, the Sahel, and northeastern Mozambique.

Europe: Severe to exceptional water deficits forecast in Mediterranean Europe, Finland, & the Baltics; surpluses in Ireland, Wales, Scotland

Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, Campania (Italy), southern Greece, and Crete. Deficits are also forecast in Finland and the Baltics. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.

South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America, surpluses in southern Brazil & central Argentina

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America. Deficits in Colombia and Venezuela may moderate somewhat March through May, and northwestern Venezuela may transition from deficits to exceptional surpluses. Thereafter, deficits are forecast to re-emerge as exceptional drought June through November across much of northern South America. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Paraguay, across its eastern border into southern Brazil, and in central Argentina.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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