*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October ...

This month’s In Focus highlights:
- El Niño Nears Its Peak
- Ethiopia: Conflict and Crop Failure in the North
- India’s Lopsided Monsoon

*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025

The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread throughout Queensland
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits ...

Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits persist in Maritime SE Asia

Europe: Water deficits, especially Scandinavia, Spain & Ukraine, surpluses in western European Russia

Europe: Water deficits, especially Scandinavia, Spain & Ukraine, surpluses in western European Russia

For the next three months water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe especially Spain, Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Ukraine. Although the severity will diminish the extent will increase. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for western European Russia. From January through March deficits are expected to diminish in both extent and severity across Europe. Surpluses will continue to emerge in European Russia during that period and will also emerge in the Baltics and southern Scandinavia.

Middle East: Water deficits persist, esp Syria, Iraq west of Euphrates, & SW Yemen

Middle East: Water deficits persist, esp Syria, Iraq west of Euphrates, & SW Yemen

Widespread water deficits are forecast to persist throughout the Middle East, but the severity of deficits will diminish October through December and continue to diminish through March. Exceptional deficits are, however, forecast for southwestern Yemen through December. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in northern and eastern Turkey, and moderate deficits will emerge nearby in northwest Iran. Severe deficits are forecast for Syria and for Iraq from the Euphrates west. 

Africa: Exceptional water deficits shrink, surpluses persist in White Nile Basin

Africa: Exceptional water deficits shrink, surpluses persist in White Nile Basin

The extent of exceptional deficits across Africa is forecast to shrink considerably through December. However, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for eastern Central African Republic and Republic of the Congo, and exceptional deficits are also expected along rivers in South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, and Kenya. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern Sudan into South Sudan and for the Nile. The forecast for January through March indicates primarily moderate water deficits across northern Africa, a scattered band of both deficits and surpluses across the Sahel, and primarily abnormal to moderate deficits in southern Africa. 

East Asia: Surpluses on Yellow and Yangtze Rivers to diminish, surpluses to persist in Zhejiang & Fujian

East Asia: Surpluses on Yellow and Yangtze Rivers to diminish, surpluses to persist in Zhejiang & Fujian

From October through December the severity of deficits on the Korean Peninsula will persist while that of the Shandong Peninsula is expected to diminish. The extent of exceptional deficits in Yunnan and Guangxi is forecast to shrink somewhat, but deficits will emerge from that region leading north. Surpluses on the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers will diminish, but surpluses will continue to emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, and southern Taiwan. Widespread surpluses that have dominated China recently are notably absent in the January through March forecast. 

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Exceptional water deficits to persist in Cambodia, surpluses in Laos

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Exceptional water deficits to persist in Cambodia, surpluses in Laos

Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through December, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia and in southern Thailand along the Gulf of Thailand. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in northern and southern Laos; Java; Gorontalo Province in central Sulawesi Island, Indonesia; and western Flores Island. After December much of Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and parts of Indonesia will transition to deficit.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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