The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Notable water deficits are forecast to persist through February in eastern Norway and in Sweden; and through May in Finland and in Russia east of the White Sea. Eastern Europe will continue a transition to water surplus which will persist through May. A wide area of water surplus is forecast to emerge March through May in Russia from the Gulf of Finland south to Ukraine.
Over the next few months South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits. However, from December through February large pockets of exceptional deficits are forecast to persist across central Brazil, Venezuela, French Guiana, western Bolivia, and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central and northeastern Colombia; northern Pará, Brazil; La Pampa, Argentina; and, both deficits and surpluses between the Chabut and Desaguadero Rivers in Argentina. After February overall conditions will improve across the continent.
Water deficits of modest severity are forecast throughout many parts of Mexico over the next six months with pockets of exceptional deficits in Oaxaca, Yucatán, Guerrero, Michoacán, western Jalisco, and Nayarit. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast to persist in western Cuba and emerge in eastern Cuba and in Jamaica through February. Deficits will persist in Guatemala; surpluses will persist in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica but may transition to both surplus and deficit.
The forecast for Canada through February indicates that exceptional deficits will shrink in Quebec, though a vast expanse will remain surrounding Lake Mistassini. Deficits will also persist in southern Newfoundland, New Brunswick, northeastern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia. Surpluses are forecast across Ontario from Kenora District in the west to Quebec; Manitoba from Hudson Bay reaching southwest to Lake Winnipeg; northwestern Saskatchewan; and southern British Columbia. After February much of Ontario will transition from surplus to mostly moderate deficit.
In the US, water deficits are forecast to persist through February from Pennsylvania and Ohio southward to the Gulf but will diminish in severity thereafter. Much of the far Northeast, with the exception of Vermont, is expected to return to near-normal conditions December through February. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa through February, and Idaho, western Montana, and Washington through May. Moderate deficits will emerge March through May in Maine, southern New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and from North Carolina through Florida.
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