The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea through the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will continue to emerge in northwestern Kazakhstan, down the middle of Kazakhstan through Karagandy Region, and in Kyrgyzstan. From May through July deficits will increase southwest of Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, exceptional surpluses will emerge between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers, and moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Though the extent of water deficits in South America is expected to shrink overall February through April, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in eastern Brazil as well as pockets in some western states. Deficits in Bolivia are forecast to shrink in extent but large pockets will persist, and the extent of deficits in Chile will shrink slightly. Surpluses will continue to emerge in central and northeastern Argentina; Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; northern Peru; and eastern Colombia. From May through June deficits will persist in eastern Brazil but much of the Amazon Basin will transition to near-normal. Deficits along Peru’s coast will increase in intensity, becoming exceptional.
The water forecast indicates deficits in: central Quebec and its southern border with Ontario; Northumberland County, New Brunswick; southern Newfoundland; northeastern Manitoba along Hudson Bay; northwestern British Columbia and central BC near Prince George; northwestern and central Alberta; northeastern Saskatchewan into northern Manitoba; and northwestern Ontario. Surpluses are forecast around the southern shore of James Bay and west into Ontario; west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba; surrounding Lake Churchill Saskatchewan; and scattered throughout southern British Columbia. After April predominantly deficit conditions are forecast.
The extent of exceptional water deficits from the Ohio River Valley to the Gulf is expected to recede but exceptional deficits will persist in eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, Missouri, and west-central Illinois. Widespread surpluses will continue to emerge in the West with particular intensity in Idaho and northern Nevada. Moderate surpluses are forecast for much of California, particularly Central California.
Water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mexico, with a vast expanse of severe deficits across northern Mexico including the Baja Peninsula and pockets of more intense deficits in the southern states and in Yucatan and Quintana Roo. Deficits are also forecast for southern Guatemala, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and eastern Dominican Republic. Deficits in the region are expected to diminish in severity after April.
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