Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: much of Canada, the Mississippi Valley, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; North Africa, coastal West Africa, southern Africa; western Turkey; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains, US; central Argentina; Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania; southeast India; and northwestern Australia. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 January 2016.
Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook for January 2016
Warm anomalies are forecast for Canada, Central America, northern South America, southern Africa and the Horn, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Wet anomalies are expected in Florida, Mexico, Paraguay, Argentina, East Africa, and the UK. Regions forecast to be drier than normal include Canada's Western Plains, Peru, and eastern Borneo.
China, Mongolia, & the Korean Peninsula: Widespread surpluses forecast for Southeast China, moderate deficits in North China
Australia: Water surpluses are forecast in the north, exceptional deficits in Tasmania and Victoria
The forecast through August 2016 indicates a predominance of water surpluses in the north and along central rivers. Exceptional drought is forecast to persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward for much of the forecast period. The persistence of moderate drought in northern South Island, New Zealand and in North Island is also in the forecast.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits forecast to persist in Southeast Asia, eastern Borneo, New Guinea
Moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast through August 2016 for many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the coming months, diminishing in the later months. Deficits are expected to be most persistent, widespread, and severe in Southeast Asia, eastern Borneo, and the island of New Guinea.