The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The September forecast is dominated by warmer than normal temperatures in many parts of the world, which are expected to be especially widespread and severe across eastern Russia, throughout Europe, and on the Arabian Peninsula. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast in the Taklamakan Desert in western China and in eastern Australia.
The outlook for the United States through October indicates the persistence of widespread severe to extreme water deficits throughout the Northeast and the continued emergence of severe deficits in the Southeast. Deficits are also forecast for the West, Southwest, and Northern Border States. Water surpluses are forecast in western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, eastern Texas, and southwestern Kentucky. After October, widespread deficits are forecast to diminish in extent and severity with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, and in the Southeast. Surpluses are expected to persist in Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southern California and central Arizona, and later, throughout the Rocky Mountains States.
Water surpluses in Kazakhstan will begin to transition to conditions of both deficits and surpluses in the next few months. Moderate to severe deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to continue to emerge through November, abate for several months, and then re-emerge. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Basin. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin August through October, followed by widespread and exceptional surpluses November through January.
The outlook for Canada indicates a predominance of water deficits, with large pockets of exceptional deficits persisting in northern Manitoba and central Quebec through October. Deficits will emerge in central Ontario during this time and surpluses will persist in northwest Saskatchewan and across the border into Alberta. By November deficit conditions throughout the country are forecast to ameliorate, though large areas of moderate deficits will remain. Surpluses will continue to emerge in southern British Columbia.
Deficits on the Baja Peninsula are forecast through October, with some abatement in August. Deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico through April. Surpluses are expected in northeastern Sonora, Mexico, northern Costa Rica, and eastern Panama through October. Deficits are forecast to emerge in Haiti. From November on moderate deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
