The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The extent of exceptional water deficits across the continent is forecast to diminish through March, though extreme deficits will continue to emerge in some areas of the Sahel. A large pocket of surplus is forecast to emerge at the intersection of Angola, Namibia, and Botswana. From April through June the intensity of deficits across northern Africa will increase while diminishing from the southern Sahel through southern Africa.
A vast expanse of exceptional water deficit is forecast in central Brazil as well as large pockets in some western states. Deficits of lesser severity are forecast for northern Venezuela, western French Guiana, Bolivia, Chile, and rivers in southern Argentina. Surpluses are forecast for central Colombia, northern Guyana, northern Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina.
The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through September 2017 indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East, first diminishing in severity through March – with a significant reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits – before increasing in both extent and severity thereafter, particularly on the Arabian Peninsula and in southern Iraq.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2016 through September 2017 include: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, eastern Brazil, Scandinavia, Arctic Russia, northern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and southern India. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Idaho, northeastern Nevada, and northwestern Utah, southern Mediterranean Spain, western European Russia, eastern Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Vietnam, and Jiangsu, China. This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 January 2017.
The January 2017 Outlook indicates a forecast of considerably wetter conditions in northern South America, southern Africa, and Southeast Asia. Much warmer than normal conditions are forecast for many locations, especially China, Indonesia, South Asia, West Africa, Mexico, eastern Brazil, and Greenland.
For more information contact info@isciences.com.
Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
