Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico and Central America; South America; Europe; Africa; Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; China, Mongolia, South Korea; Australia.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2015 and running through June 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast October 15, 2015 (pdf).

United States and Canada: Water deficits may persist in the US Northwest. Deficits in the West may persist for a few months before beginning to transition to moderate surpluses. Surpluses are forecast in the Central and Southern Plains, and in the Northeast and Southeast. In contrast, widespread deficits are expected to emerge in the Mississippi Valley from the Gulf of Mexico northward to Minnesota; and, from Canada’s Central Plains eastward through Ontario and into Quebec.

Mexico and Central America: Water deficits may continue to emerge throughout much of Mexico with particular severity and extent in southern Mexico. Surpluses may persist in the northwest along the conjoined borders of Sonora and Chihuahua, down through Sinaloa where severe surpluses may persist. Deficits are forecast to persist in much of Central America.

South America: Exceptional water deficits may persist across northern Brazil, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern Chile. Surpluses may emerge in Ecuador and northern Peru. Surpluses are also forecast for central Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity with widespread exceptional surpluses.

Europe: Widespread water deficits may persist in much of Continental Europe, while surpluses may continue in Scotland, Ireland, Iceland, and northern Sweden. Deficits may transition to surpluses in Central Europe. However, Spain, Italy, Eastern Europe, Finland, and the Balkan Peninsula may experience persistent deficits.

Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India: Widespread and exceptional water deficits may emerge in Iran, southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Deficits may persist longer and with greatest extent in Iran.

Africa: Exceptional water deficits may dominate North Africa, with both deficits and surpluses in some areas. Deficits may persist in coastal West Africa, Southern Africa, Madagascar, and northern Ethiopia. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania.

China, Mongolia, South Korea: Widespread water deficits may continue in North China including the North China Plain and in Mongolia, though some areas may experience both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China which may be of exceptional severity in Fujian. Exceptional deficits may persist in South Korea before beginning to diminish in severity.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may continue to experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months, particularly southern Sumatra, Java, Borneo and neighboring Sulawesi, New Guinea, and the Philippines. Though periods of respite are forecast, deficits are expected to return and spread in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam; and, some areas may experience both deficits and surpluses.

Australia: Deficit conditions are forecast across much of Australia but may diminish and transition to surpluses in the north and along central rivers. Exceptional drought may persist in Tasmania, southern Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward through the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate drought may persist in North Island, New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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