*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

South America: Intense water deficits in Chile & large pockets in Brazil

South America: Intense water deficits in Chile & large pockets in Brazil

Exceptional deficits will diminish in South America over the next several months but large pockets of intense deficit are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits are also expected to be intense in: northern and southeastern Venezuela; western Ecuador; western Peru; most of Chile, especially the Atacama Desert and Bío Bío; and, Río Chubut in Patagonian Argentina. Surpluses will downgrade in central and eastern Colombia, but will be severe.

Africa: Water deficits will persist in northern Africa & on Kafue River in Zambia

Africa: Water deficits will persist in northern Africa & on Kafue River in Zambia

Though intense water deficits will persist in northern Africa over the next few months, exceptional deficits will shrink in the north and along the Red Sea, and will nearly disappear from the rest of the continent. Intense deficits will persist in Zambia’s Kafue River watershed. Areas of surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, eastern Uganda, some countries along the northern Gulf of Guinea, central Chad, and northwestern Zambia. Surpluses will be intense in East Africa.

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits to persist in southern Iraq & in Kuwait

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits to persist in southern Iraq & in Kuwait

Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits will persist in Afghanistan

South Asia: Exceptional water deficits will persist in Afghanistan

Through October, exceptional water deficits will dominate Afghanistan’s west and northwest. In India, moderate deficits will cover much of the southern two-thirds of the country with more intense deficits in western Telangana, Karnataka, southeastern Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and central Chhattisgarh. Surpluses will downgrade but remain intense in Bangladesh, and will shrink and moderate in Nepal, though remaining exceptional along the Gandaki River.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Exceptional water surpluses forecast on Mekong River

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Exceptional water surpluses forecast on Mekong River

Through October, water surpluses will persist with intensity in western Myanmar, retreat from northwestern Thailand, downgrade slightly in Laos and Vietnam, shrink considerably in the Philippines, and nearly disappear in Malaysia and Indonesia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast along the Mekong River. Deficits north of Tonle Sap in Cambodia will intensify. Deficits are also forecast for the Malay Peninsula, western Indonesian Borneo, southern Sumatra, Java, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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