The near-term forecast indicates that widespread water deficits will persist, though moderate, in Brazil. However, intense deficits are forecast for: Brazil’s far north into Suriname and French Guiana; Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte; north-central and southern Venezuela; Cochabamba, Bolivia; northern Chile; and Tierra del Fuego. Surpluses will persist in La Pampa and Buenos Aires Provinces, Argentina, and will emerge in Uruguay. After November deficits will retreat to eastern Brazil and surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin.
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South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits in December. However, from September through November exceptional deficits are forecast across northern Brazil along with moderate deficits reaching southward to Rio de Janeiro. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast near Caracas, Venezuela; western Bolivia; Chile; rivers in southern Argentina; and the Falkland Islands. Surpluses are forecast in eastern Paraguay, and Paraná and Santa Catarina, Brazil. Overall, water deficit conditions will continue to diminish in extent and severity from December through May.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: Ohio, Pennsylvania, the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, southern Mexico, Chile, Central and Eastern Europe, North Africa, Zambia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Siberia, Gujarat, Cambodia, South Korea, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Louisiana; Paraguay; European Russia and the Volga Basin; the Chambal, Yamuna, and Ganges Rivers in India; Bangladesh; western Myanmar; Laos; and the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2016.
South America is forecast to transition away from widespread exceptional water deficits after October. However, until then exceptional deficits are forecast for much of Brazil north of Rio, along with deficits of varying severity elsewhere in South America. By December the extent of exceptional water deficits in Brazil will diminish except along the Amazon River and in Amapá and Maranhão. From November on moderate deficits are forecast in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.