In this installment of the Proof Point series, we detail current weather-related events affecting the Amazon rainforest and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts.
Each month, ISciences reports on significant weather events occurring throughout the world and analyze how accurately our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) predicted them. In this series, we highlight the most severe global weather events which occurred during the month of April, and discuss the extent of their impact on the affected regions.
Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region.
Extreme to exceptional surpluses in India will resolve, leaving moderate surpluses in central and eastern portions of the country. Deficits are expected to spread in portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India.
The March Outlook indicates that East Africa, Southeast Asia, and Paraguay will be significantly wetter than normal. A vast stretch of much warmer than normal conditions is forecast from West Africa leading across Mediterranean Africa, through the Levant, and from northern Iran through Central Asia across much of northern China into Mongolia.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
The December Outlook indicates that Alaska is forecast to be warmer than normal, especially the western half of the state where temperatures are expected to be the hottest in 20 to 40 years. Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua, and New Zealand also stand out with intense hot anomalies predicted. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast for northern Ukraine and across the border into the Don River Basin and parts of the Volga Basin in Russia.
South Africa stands out in the November Outlook with a forecast of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures. Much of Asia, Indonesia, and the southern and eastern US are expected to be warmer than normal. Much drier than normal conditions are expected in a path following the Andes from Colombia through Brazil, while wetter than normal conditions are forecast for the US Northern Plains states and pockets of central Africa.
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