The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions forecast for southern China through the Pearl River Basin encompassing the Pearl’s northern tributaries; and, oceans away in Uruguay. Temperatures in Northeast China are expected to be exceptionally warmer than usual, anomalies with a return period of 40 or more years.
Through February, widespread intense water surpluses will persist in the center of the country and in the east. Surpluses will cut a broad path from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, passing through Iowa and reaching the eastern half of Texas. Surpluses are also forecast for the northern Ohio River Basin and in the east from southern New York through Florida’s Panhandle, and will be extreme in eastern Pennsylvania. Areas of deficit include: northern New York, northern Maine, southern Florida, northwestern Wyoming, Colorado, and western Oregon.
The forecast through February indicates a pattern of anomalies similar to the prior three months, including: exceptional water deficits in Quebec, notably in the Ottawa-Gatineau River region in the south and across the border into Ontario; intense deficits in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta; and intense surpluses in southeastern British Columbia. Deficits are expected to increase in southern Saskatchewan where anomalies will be severe to exceptional.
For the next three months, water surpluses will persist in northern Coahuila, Mexico, and along a diagonal from southern Durango through Mexico City, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla, and continuing into northern Oaxaca. Intense surpluses are forecast in Nicaragua. Areas of deficit include: the Rio Grande in Chihuahua, northern Yucatan, western Panama, Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
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