The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will downgrade but will be widespread and severe, and deficits will emerge in much of Southeast Asia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Philippines, northeastern Borneo, and scattered pockets of Indonesia. Exceptional deficits will persist around the Gulf of Papua in Papua New Guinea. Surpluses will downgrade slightly in north-central New Guinea around Jayapura.
The forecast through June indicates that intense water deficits will emerge throughout much of India south and west of the Gangetic Plain. Intense surpluses are forecast in northern India, northern Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many of these regions. Deficits will emerge in southern Afghanistan and will be severe in the southwest. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal, Bangladesh along the Padma River and in the northeast, and nearby regions of India.
The forecast through June indicates water deficits in Baja, Mexico, coastal Sonora, southern Chihuahua, the Pacific Coast from southern Sinaloa through Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of surplus include Coahuila, the southern border of Chihuahua and Sonora, and pockets in the center of the country. Some moderate deficits are expected Central America, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink, with nearly normal conditions in Pará and Amazonas, but intense deficits are forecast for Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, and along many rivers. Surpluses will increase in northeastern states. Exceptional deficits will trace a path along the Pacific Coast from Lima, Peru reaching almost to Santiago, Chile. Surpluses will increase and intensify in Paraguay.
The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus north of Minsk, southern Sweden, and eastern Croatia. Deficits will moderate in Spain but intensify in central France, especially along the Loire and Dordogne Rivers. Surpluses are forecast for pockets of Switzerland and Austria, southern Umbria in central Italy, northwestern Sweden, and Murmansk, Russia.
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