The forecast for April 2017 indicates much warmer than normal temperatures for many parts of the world, with exceptional warm anomalies in Russia, the Arabian Peninsula, India, southern Myanmar, Madagascar, northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Northwest Territories. Much of northern Russian is forecast to be wetter than normal, along with Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
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The March 2017 Outlook indicates drier than normal conditions in southern California and eastern Brazil, and wetter than normal conditions in Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay, and Namibia and neighboring African nations. The forecast for many parts of the world is for much warmer than normal conditions including: Europe, Russia, Yemen, Queensland (Australia), Madagascar, Brazil, Cuba, and southwestern Mexico.
More intense precipitation events are occurring worldwide in both dry and wet climates. What has changed is the overall temperature constraint in the system. When the globe is warmer, there is more energy to work with. More heat - that is, more energy - begets more intense precipitation, and the possibility of more floods and more droughts. The most immediate threats of warming result from the changing risks of extreme weather. Unlike sea level rise which is real but less perceptible, this influence is already upon us and apparent.
The outlook for June 2016 shows a dominant pattern of many severe to exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures - particularly in Brazil, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia - along with a few pockets cooler than normal. Exceptional wet anomalies are forecast for portions of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. Severe to extreme wet anomalies are forecast for portions of Texas, Mexico, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Dry anomalies are forecast for portions of Uruguay, Brazil, Spain, Ethiopia, and India.
The Outlook for May 2016 includes the forecast of exceptional precipitation in Venezuela's Orinoco watershed. Much hotter than average temperatures are forecast to dominate much of Southeast Asia and Indonesia, along with many other parts of the world.
In February dry anomalies are forecast for northern Brazil, western Colombia, central Ecuador, Peru, Chile, the Middle East, and coastal West Africa. Precipitation surpluses are forecast from Ireland eastward through much of Russia. Warm anomalies are forecast across much of Europe, Russia and Indonesia, along with parts of Central and South America.
Global Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for July 2015 #temperature #precipitation #forecast #cfsv2 #elnino
Exceptionally high temperatures are expected to dominate the global outlook for July 2015, including: Western US and Canada; Central America, west coast of South America, and Brazil; much of Europe; southern Africa; northeast India and Myanmar; Indonesia and Malaysia; and, northeast Siberia. The July outlook for global precipitation shows both exceptional surpluses and deficits. Surpluses are expected in: the US Southwest and Central Plains; northwestern Mexico; Western Amazonia and southern Brazil; and, northern Australia. Dryness is forecast for: southern Mexico; parts of Central America; parts of northern South America; Central and Eastern Europe; the Horn of Africa and Yemen; Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua Guinea, and the Philippines; and, northern China.
The current forecast for Jordan for the 3-month period ending October 2015 has moderated from the prior forecast. Though much of Jordan is expected to experience deficits, those deficits are not expected to be exceptional.
The current forecast for Iran for the 6-month period ending in November 2015 has moderated relative to last month’s forecast. The revised forecast calls for widespread severe to exceptional deficits, but is generally less dire than the broad region of exceptional deficits in the prior forecast.
In Europe, as we look back at the last three months and forward for the next nine we can see that deficits have and will dominate this period overall. Deficits observed in the spring may spread this summer over much of Europe with exceptional deficits evident along rivers. These deficits are expected to persist though diminish in severity throughout the fall, after which conditions may change to surpluses from December through February with the exception of Italy and eastern Spain.