The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Water deficits are forecast to persist through May in Tasmania, the southwestern tip of Western Australia, and from Adelaide through Victoria, though deficits of exceptional severity will diminish considerably in extent. Surpluses are forecast for central Queensland and parts of the Murray-Darling Basin through November. Far north reaches of Australia are expected to transition from deficit to moderate surplus from December through February.
For the next three months water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe, and though the severity will diminish the extent will increase. Surpluses are forecast for European Russia. After November, water surpluses will emerge across Northern Europe, western European Russia from St. Petersburg to the White Sea, and in the Volga Basin.
Water deficits on Mexico’s Baja Peninsula are forecast to diminish by November. Deficits in southern Mexico – reaching from Michoacán in the west to Tabasco on the Gulf of Mexico – will persist through May. Deficits are also forecast in Haiti through November, and Guatemala and El Salvador through May. Surpluses are forecast from Nicaragua to Panama through November but should diminish thereafter.
The forecast for the United States through November includes widespread extreme water deficits throughout the East and on the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, with moderate deficits in the West. A large pocket of surpluses is forecast along the Upper Mississippi River, encompassing southern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois. From December through February deficits across the US are forecast to diminish; surpluses will persist in Minnesota and Wisconsin and will continue to emerge southward.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Cambodia through May. From September through November deficits will continue to emerge in Thailand and the eastern half of Luzon, Philippines. Surpluses are forecast in Laos, western Flores Island, Vietnam, Sumatra, Java, North Kalimantan, West Papua, and northern Luzon. By December, however, much of the region will begin to transition to water deficits of varying severity which will persist through May.
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