The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Water deficits are forecast to continue in much of Mexico, increasing in extent and severity through February 2018. For the next few months exceptional deficits are forecast in Nayarit, along with deficits of varying severity in other states including Hidalgo, Michoacán, Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas. Surpluses in Central America are expected diminish but will remain in the forecast through November in Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in southeastern Texas through November along with surpluses of lesser severity along the Gulf. Exceptional deficits in the Northern Plains States will moderate. In the West, surpluses are forecast in Idaho, nearby areas of surrounding states, and pockets of central California. Deficits are expected in: northern Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, northeastern and southernmost Texas, southern Michigan, northwestern Pennsylvania, northern Maine, southern West Virginia, and the Southeast. After November moderate surpluses are forecast for the Ohio River Valley.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2017 through May 2018 include: Montana (US), Nayarit (Mexico), Amapá (Brazil), Italy, the Arabian Peninsula, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (India), Cambodia, Mongolia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: US Gulf Coast, La Pampa (Argentina), Tanzania, Bangladesh, Tripura and Mizoram (India), western Myanmar, Laos, Jiangxi and Guangxi (China), and Transvolga (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2017.
The September Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures - conditions we'd expect to see once in 20 to 40 years - in many regions of the world including India's southern half, coastal West Africa, and the eastern Amazon Basin. Much drier than normal conditions are forecast for central India.
After July the Northern Plains States should see a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits. Surpluses will persist in the Gulf region, diminish in the Great Lakes States, and transition to mild deficits in Virginia and North Carolina. After October moderate water surpluses will re-emerge in most of the Great Lakes States and in the Ohio River Valley, and pockets of surplus will continue to emerge in Idaho and surrounding states. Deficits in the southern states of the East Coast are expected to ratchet up slightly to moderate intensity and emerge in Florida.
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